Scenario simulator

Pick the rebalances you are considering, then see how they would move your risk budget, drawdown, and bucket weights over the next 7 or 30 days.

Scenario & horizon

Slow grind, yield carries most of the return.

Saved scenarios keep the selected moves, scenario, and horizon so you can reload them later.

Risk cap warnings

1 of your 4 caps would be breached in the base case scenario over 7 days.

Max position size

Breached

$386,526

Limit $84,456 · over by $302,070

Largest risk bucket (Core BTC/ETH) ends at 45.8% of the book, against your 10% per-position cap.

Open risk budget

1.30%

Limit 5.00% · 3.70% headroom

Scaled from today's 1.40% by the change in risk-on exposure.

Daily loss limit

0.00%

Limit 2.00% · 2.00% headroom

Worst single day in this path moves the book by -0.00%.

Max drawdown

4.20%

Limit 15.00% · 10.80% headroom

Existing 4.2% drawdown plus the peak decline in this window.

Breaches across every scenario at 7d

Scenario	End value	Peak drawdown	Caps breached
Risk-on	$878,638	0.0%	Max position size
Base case	$844,558	0.0%	Max position size
Risk-off	$810,585	1.0%	Max position size
Shock	$711,599	13.0%	Max position size Daily loss limit Max drawdown

Value in 7d — rebalanced

$844,558

Do nothing: $846,504 (-$1,946)

Peak drawdown (rebalanced)

0.0%

Do nothing: 0.0% (+0.0 pts)

Projected open risk

1.30%

Cap 5% · today 1.40%

Rebalance turnover

$171,305

3 moves applied in this run

Upcoming rebalances

Tick the moves you want included in the simulation.

Core BTC/ETH

Hold

44.8% now vs 45% target

Stablecoins

Add

14.2% now vs 20% target · $47,145

Stablecoin Pools

Add

10.8% now vs 15% target · $34,734

Blue-chip Alts

Trim

25.9% now vs 15% target · $89,426

Native Markets

Hold

4.3% now vs 5% target

Trims move value into stablecoins; adds are funded from stablecoins. This is a model of your own plan, not advice, and it does not execute anything.

Projected portfolio value

Base case scenario over 7 days, rebalanced vs doing nothing.

Drawdown path

Peak-to-trough decline from the start of the window.

Risk budget after the window

Rebalanced path measured against your own caps.

Open risk used1.30% of 5%

Total drawdown4.20% of 15%

Risk-on exposure79.72% of book

Doing nothing instead

Open risk 1.41%, drawdown 4.2%, risk-on exposure 86.2%.

Largest bucket ends at 45.8% of the book, over your 35% single-line limit.

Bucket allocations

Today, right after the rebalance, and at the end of the 7d window.

Bucket	Today	After rebalance	End of 7d	Change	End value
Core BTC/ETH	44.8%	44.8%	45.8%	+1.0 pts	$386,526
Stablecoins	14.2%	20.9%	20.3%	+6.0 pts	$171,317
Stablecoin Pools	10.8%	15.0%	14.6%	+3.8 pts	$123,060
Blue-chip Alts	25.9%	15.0%	14.9%	-11.1 pts	$125,586
Native Markets	4.3%	4.3%	4.5%	+0.2 pts	$38,070

Scenarios use fixed drift and volatility assumptions per bucket and are repeatable, not forecasts. Real outcomes will differ. Educational tooling only — no returns are implied or guaranteed.