Investment journal
One entry per position. If you cannot write the exit rule, you are not ready to enter.
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Thesis
Fixed-rate stable yield above T-bills while the funding rate stays positive.
Entry plan
Size at 2% of portfolio, add only if TVL stabilises above $60M.
Exit rules
Exit if APY falls under 9% or TVL drops more than 20% in a week.
Max loss
25% of the position
Thesis
Render demand is real and fees are paid in token. Treat as a 3-year call option.
Entry plan
Three tranches, one third done. Next tranche only after Q3 usage report.
Exit rules
Trim 50% at 3x. Full exit if monthly render revenue declines two quarters running.
Max loss
100% of the position
Thesis
Base layer of the all-weather sleeve. Accumulate, do not trade.
Entry plan
Fixed monthly buy regardless of price.
Exit rules
No discretionary exit. Rebalance only when above 50% of portfolio.
Max loss
0% of the position
Thesis
High fee APR, but impermanent loss has eaten most of it historically.
Entry plan
Do not add. Current position is a leftover from June.
Exit rules
Close the position on the next positive ARB week.
Max loss
40% of the position